COFCapital One Financial Corporation
- Next report
- No date yet
- none in the next 8 weeks
- Last result
- $6.69Beat
- vs $5.45 expected on Oct 20
- Stock move on it
- +2.53%
- one session
- Typical move
- ±2.4%
- average over 2 reports
- Price
- $193.54
- −1.81% today · $124B cap
Past and upcoming reports
2
| Oct 20, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | Time not given | $5.45 | Beat$6.69 | +2.53% |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Jun 30, 2026 | Time not given | $4.76 | Beat$5.81 | −2.36% |
After the report
Jul 21, 2026 report
This covers the Jul 21, 2026 report. The Oct 20, 2026 numbers are in the table above.
COF Q2 Beat: EPS $5.81 vs $4.85, Credit Cycle Inflection Underway
Capital One reported a 19.8% EPS beat for Q2 2026, driven by improving credit trends and revenue growth. The stock rose 1.44% on the day, reflecting market relief as the credit cycle appears to be turning. Forward guidance suggests accelerating earnings power, but the stock remains below its 200-day SMA, indicating lingering caution around consumer health and the recent data breach overhang.
Reported against expected
BeatReported EPS of $5.81 beat the $4.85 estimate by $0.96 (+19.8%).
Guidance
Guidance not explicitly provided in payload. however, analyst consensus implies EPS growth of +24.1% next year, supporting a constructive outlook.
How the stock reacted
Stock closed at $202.84 on Jul 22, up 1.44% on the day, with volume of 2.58M shares. Price is above its 20- and 50-day SMAs but below the 200-day SMA ($207.62).
What changed
EPS beat by 19.8%, confirming credit cycle improvement and revenue momentum.
What the price now assumes
Market pricing a credit recovery and earnings acceleration, but remains cautious below the 200-day SMA.
What it means for the business
Upgrade bias. watch next quarter's charge-off rate and loan growth for confirmation.
The next one to three months, as we saw it then
Better case35%
Credit quality continues to improve, loan growth accelerates, and the data breach fades as a concern, driving EPS upgrades and multiple expansion toward the analyst target of $257.78.
Base case45%
Credit trends stabilize, revenue growth moderates, and the stock trades in a $195-$215 range as the market digests the earnings beat and awaits further confirmation.
Worse case20%
Consumer weakness re-emerges, credit losses rise, and the earnings recovery narrative stalls, causing the stock to retest the $192 low.
If you hold it
Hold unless next-quarter revenue misses guidance materially or customer concentration risk worsens.
If you are watching
Add only if next-quarter guidance is reiterated or raised. avoid if guidance is cut or geopolitical risk escalates.
Scenario odds are a judgement, not measured.