Idea baskets
One idea per basket, with what would break it.
10 ideas, best this year first
S&P 500 (SPY), for scale+12.3%
- Cybersecurity+56.7%Identity, endpoint, network, cloud, data protection, and cyber recovery.PANW · CRWD · FTNT · ZS +61M −16.9%3M +0.2%1Y +42.1%−16.9%+0.2%+56.7%+42.1%
- AI capex+34.8%The compute, memory, networking, power, and platform layer behind the AI buildout.NVDA · MU · TSM · AVGO +61M −14.4%3M −12.9%1Y +38.3%−14.4%−12.9%+34.8%+38.3%
- Space infrastructure+18.1%Launch, satellites, communications, earth observation, lunar systems, and payloads.RKLB · IRDM · ASTS · PL +71M −1.9%3M −19.4%1Y +33.5%−1.9%−19.4%+18.1%+33.5%
- Healthcare+13.5%GLP-1s, diagnostics, life-sciences software, devices, and drug-development infrastructure.LLY · DXCM · VEEV · ISRG +61M +9.2%3M +7.4%1Y +14.9%+9.2%+7.4%+13.5%+14.9%
- Robotics & automation+9.0%Factory automation, machine vision, warehouses, surgical robots, and autonomy.TER · ROK · PATH · CGNX +81M −3.9%3M −6.8%1Y +9.0%−3.9%−6.8%+9.0%+9.0%
- Energy+9.0%Electricity demand, grid bottlenecks, nuclear reliability, natural gas, and infrastructure buildout.CEG · PWR · ETN · GEV +61M −11.6%3M −11.9%1Y +4.5%−11.6%−11.9%+9.0%+4.5%
- Financials+8.5%Exchanges, payments, asset managers, private credit, and diversified banking platforms.ICE · V · MA · GS +61M +9.2%3M +5.8%1Y +12.3%+9.2%+5.8%+8.5%+12.3%
- Water infrastructure+2.6%Pumps, treatment, smart metering, utilities, engineering, and drainage systems.XYL · ECL · PNR · WTS +81M +11.5%3M −0.3%1Y +0.4%+11.5%−0.3%+2.6%+0.4%
- Defense−6.7%Missile replenishment, air defense, cyber, autonomy, space, naval programs, nuclear systems, and AI-enabled defense capabilities.RTX · NOC · CACI · GD +61M +2.5%3M −13.0%1Y −9.5%+2.5%−13.0%−6.7%−9.5%
- Critical materials−11.8%Copper, rare earths, lithium, uranium, aluminum, and diversified mining.FCX · SCCO · MP · ALB +61M −14.5%3M −24.6%1Y +0.1%−14.5%−24.6%−11.8%+0.1%
Hypothetical equal-weight baskets, picked with hindsight, so the past flatters them. Not a recommendation to buy.