Strategies

Simple rules, rebalanced at each month end and tested on past prices.

Backtested, not tradedDec 1, 2015 to Nov 11, 202610 of 12 have a backtest2 of 10 beat the S&P 500live for 2 sessions since Nov 9, 2026How to read these

12 strategies	RulesS&P	Per year	vs S&P 500	Worst fall	Sharpe	Swings	Holds now	Live
Momentum leadersThe 25 S&P 500 stocks that rose most over the past year.		+27.1%	+12.8 pts	−39.1%	1.00	1.58×	25 stocks	+5.20%
Calm stocksThe 25 S&P 500 stocks whose prices moved least over the past year.		+11.7%	−2.6 pts	−33.5%	0.82	0.84×	25 stocks	+0.08%
Steady climbersStocks that rose over the past year without big daily swings.		+10.8%	−3.5 pts	−34.6%	0.72	0.90×	25 stocks	+0.54%
Ten largest, equal weightThe ten biggest US companies, 10% each.		+20.1%	+6.6 pts	−44.4%	0.91	1.31×	10 stocks	+0.89%
Big companies in uptrendsLarge companies trading above their 200-day average, with a market-wide exit.		+8.8%	−6.1 pts	−34.0%	0.52	1.13×	15 stocks	+2.76%
S&P 500 with a 200-day exitOwn the index fund while it is above its 200-day average. Otherwise hold cash.		+7.8%	−7.1 pts	−27.9%	0.67	0.70×	1 fund	+1.22%
Asset-class momentumThe three strongest of eleven stock, bond, gold and commodity funds, or cash.		+6.2%	−8.1 pts	−23.7%	0.51	0.78×	3 funds	+0.38%
Sector rotationThe three strongest of the eleven US sector funds.		+10.6%	−3.1 pts	−29.0%	0.66	0.99×	3 funds	+1.61%
Buy the dipS&P 500 stocks in a long-term uptrend that fell most in the past month.		+14.5%	−0.4 pts	−42.1%	0.73	1.25×	20 stocks	+3.42%
Follow the filing: CongressStocks that members of Congress reported buying more than selling in the last 90 days.		−3.6%2 months total	−3.6 pts	−13.3%	–	1.52×	10 stocks	+0.89%
Quality companiesHigh return on capital, modest debt, strong cash generation.	No backtest	–	–	–	–	–	25 stocks	+2.30%
Dividend growersCompanies that have raised their dividend for at least ten years running.	No backtest	–	–	–	–	–	25 stocks	+0.28%

Momentum leaders

The 25 S&P 500 stocks that rose most over the past year.

Per year: +27.1%
vs S&P 500: +12.8 pts
Worst fall: −39.1%

Holds 25 stocks · 1.58× the S&P's swings · Live: +5.20%

Calm stocks

The 25 S&P 500 stocks whose prices moved least over the past year.

Per year: +11.7%
vs S&P 500: −2.6 pts
Worst fall: −33.5%

Holds 25 stocks · 0.84× the S&P's swings · Live: +0.08%

Steady climbers

Stocks that rose over the past year without big daily swings.

Per year: +10.8%
vs S&P 500: −3.5 pts
Worst fall: −34.6%

Holds 25 stocks · 0.90× the S&P's swings · Live: +0.54%

Ten largest, equal weight

The ten biggest US companies, 10% each.

Per year: +20.1%
vs S&P 500: +6.6 pts
Worst fall: −44.4%

Holds 10 stocks · 1.31× the S&P's swings · Live: +0.89%

Big companies in uptrends

Large companies trading above their 200-day average, with a market-wide exit.

Per year: +8.8%
vs S&P 500: −6.1 pts
Worst fall: −34.0%

Holds 15 stocks · 1.13× the S&P's swings · Live: +2.76%

S&P 500 with a 200-day exit

Own the index fund while it is above its 200-day average. Otherwise hold cash.

Per year: +7.8%
vs S&P 500: −7.1 pts
Worst fall: −27.9%

Holds 1 fund · 0.70× the S&P's swings · Live: +1.22%

Asset-class momentum

The three strongest of eleven stock, bond, gold and commodity funds, or cash.

Per year: +6.2%
vs S&P 500: −8.1 pts
Worst fall: −23.7%

Holds 3 funds · 0.78× the S&P's swings · Live: +0.38%

Sector rotation

The three strongest of the eleven US sector funds.

Per year: +10.6%
vs S&P 500: −3.1 pts
Worst fall: −29.0%

Holds 3 funds · 0.99× the S&P's swings · Live: +1.61%

Buy the dip

S&P 500 stocks in a long-term uptrend that fell most in the past month.

Per year: +14.5%
vs S&P 500: −0.4 pts
Worst fall: −42.1%

Holds 20 stocks · 1.25× the S&P's swings · Live: +3.42%

Follow the filing: Congress

Stocks that members of Congress reported buying more than selling in the last 90 days.

2 months total: −3.6%
vs S&P 500: −3.6 pts
Worst fall: −13.3%

Holds 10 stocks · 1.52× the S&P's swings · Live: +0.89%

Quality companies

High return on capital, modest debt, strong cash generation.

No backtest: these rules need past financials.

Holds 25 stocks · Live: +2.30%

Dividend growers

Companies that have raised their dividend for at least ten years running.

No backtest: these rules need past financials.

Holds 25 stocks · Live: +0.28%

Backtested, not traded: the pool is today's list, so companies that failed are missing, and trades fill at the next close with 0.1% cost. Research, not advice.

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