MPCMarathon Petroleum Corporation

Next report: No date yet; none in the next 8 weeks
Last result: $26.93Beat; vs $25.74 expected on Nov 3
Stock move on it: −0.71%; one session
Typical move: ±1.3%; average over 2 reports
Price: $412.82; +2.48% today · $90.2B cap

Past and upcoming reports


Nov 3, 2026	Sep 30, 2026	Time not given	$25.74	Beat$26.93	Beat+4.6%	−0.71%
Aug 4, 2026	Jun 30, 2026	Time not given	$10.77	Beat$17.73	Beat+64.6%	+1.82%

After the report

Aug 4, 2026 report

This covers the Aug 4, 2026 report. The Nov 3, 2026 numbers are in the table above.

MPC beat second-quarter EPS estimates, but declining next-year expectations leave earnings durability unresolved

MPC reported fiscal second-quarter EPS of $17.73, beating the $14.52 estimate by 22.1%. The stock closed at $298.17 on August 7, down 0.36%, while next-year EPS growth is forecast at -32.93%.

Reported against expected

Beat

Reported EPS was $17.73 versus a $14.52 estimate, a $3.21 or 22.1% beat for the quarter ended June 30, 2026.

Guidance

Formal forward guidance and management guidance commentary were not provided in the payload. next-year EPS growth was forecast at -32.93%.

How the stock reacted

The event-day, first-day, and second-day percentage reactions were unavailable. MPC closed at $298.17 on August 7, down $1.08 or 0.36%.

What changed

MPC reported $17.73 EPS, beating estimates by 22.1%, while next-year EPS growth remained forecast at -32.93%.

What the price now assumes

The $298.17 close, below the $301.42 EMA20, reflects caution despite a 10.27 trailing P/E and 84.63% one-year return.

What it means for the business

Keep a mixed bias. upgrade only if refining margins hold and forward EPS revisions stop declining over the next 30-90 days.

The next one to three months, as we saw it then

Better case35%

The earnings beat extends if refining conditions remain favorable and forward estimates stabilize after the reported quarter.

Base case40%

MPC consolidates after the beat as valuation support offsets uncertainty around lower future earnings.

Worse case25%

Profit normalization overwhelms the reported beat, particularly if refining margins weaken and expected earnings contract further.

If you hold it

Hold unless next-quarter revenue misses guidance materially or customer concentration risk worsens.

If you are watching

Add only if next-quarter guidance is reiterated or raised. avoid if guidance is cut or geopolitical risk escalates.

Scenario odds are a judgement, not measured.