What if you had copied Fairfax Financial?
Prem Watsa
The verdict
Copying Fairfax Financial's 13F filings from Feb 2020 would have turned $10,000 into $17,756, less than the S&P 500 did.
The S&P 500 turned the same $10,000 into $24,639 over the same days. The copy returned +8.9% a year against +14.4% for the S&P 500, 5.4 points a year behind. Its worst fall was 60.2%, from Jan 27, 2021 to Dec 28, 2022. The S&P 500's worst fall over the test was 33.7%.
Copied Feb 18, 2020 to Nov 9, 2026 · SEC 13F filings and daily closes
What $10,000 became
- Copying Fairfax Financial$17,756
- S&P 500$24,639
- Bought their first portfolio and never traded$22,045
If you had bought their first portfolio and never traded, you would have ended at $22,045, so following every move cost $4,289.
- $10,000 copied
- $17,756
- +77.6%, +8.9% a year
- In the S&P 500
- $24,639
- +146.4%, +14.4% a year
- No trading
- $22,045
- Bought their first portfolio and never traded
- Worst fall
- −60.2%
- Jan 27, 2021 to Dec 28, 2022
- Trades
- 189
- 109 buys, 80 sales over 28 filings; about 60% of the copy traded a year
The moves that made the most
- MUMicron Technology+$2,601
Held from Feb 2020 to Aug 2025, the stock up 114%
- BBBlackberry+$2,095
Held from Feb 2020 to Aug 2026, the stock up 43%
Held from May 2020 to Aug 2024, the stock up 158%
- CVSCVS Health+$792
Held since Feb 2020, the stock up 26%
- CLFCleveland-Cliffs+$489
Held since Feb 2025, the stock up 2%
- GOOGLAlphabet+$446
Held from May 2020 to Feb 2025, the stock up 166%
The moves that cost the most
- UAAUnder Armour−$627
Held since Aug 2024, the stock down 33%
Held from Aug 2022 to May 2026, the stock down 0%
- ATS−$360
Held since Aug 2023, the stock down 48%
- EGOEldorado Gold−$266
Held since Aug 2026, the stock down 7%
- BACBank of America−$247
Held from Aug 2022 to Aug 2023, the stock down 16%
Held since Feb 2025, the stock down 30%
Year by year
| Year | Copy | S&P 500 | Gap, pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020from Feb 2020 | +9.0% | +13.1% | −4.1 |
| 2021 | +44.7% | +28.7% | +16.0 |
| 2022 | −33.2% | −18.2% | −15.0 |
| 2023 | +18.6% | +26.2% | −7.6 |
| 2024 | +10.0% | +24.9% | −14.9 |
| 2025 | +11.1% | +17.7% | −6.6 |
| 2026to Nov 2026 | +16.3% | +11.5% | +4.8 |
A historical test on paper, before costs and taxes. It trades at the close of the first trading day after each filing comes out, up to 45 days after the quarter, and skips delisted companies, which flatters it.