What if you had copied Fairholme Capital?
Bruce Berkowitz
The verdict
Copying Fairholme Capital's 13F filings from Feb 2020 would have turned $10,000 into $35,445, more than the S&P 500 did.
The S&P 500 turned the same $10,000 into $24,639 over the same days. The copy returned +20.7% a year against +14.4% for the S&P 500, 6.4 points a year ahead. Its worst fall was 44.1%, from Apr 1, 2022 to Sep 26, 2022. The S&P 500's worst fall over the test was 33.7%.
Copied Feb 18, 2020 to Nov 9, 2026 · SEC 13F filings and daily closes
What $10,000 became
- Copying Fairholme Capital$35,445
- S&P 500$24,639
- Bought their first portfolio and never traded$36,078
If you had bought their first portfolio and never traded, you would have ended at $36,077, so following every move cost $632.
- $10,000 copied
- $35,445
- +254.5%, +20.7% a year
- In the S&P 500
- $24,639
- +146.4%, +14.4% a year
- No trading
- $36,077
- Bought their first portfolio and never traded
- Worst fall
- −44.1%
- Apr 1, 2022 to Sep 26, 2022
- Trades
- 95
- 54 buys, 41 sales over 27 filings; about 14% of the copy traded a year
The moves that made the most
- JOESt Joe+$21,001
Held since Feb 2020, the stock up 262%
Held since Feb 2021, the stock up 165%
Held since Feb 2020, the stock up 154%
- CMCCommercial Metals+$467
Held from Aug 2021 to Nov 2023, the stock up 40%
- OZKBank Ozk+$202
Held since Nov 2023, the stock up 39%
- WRBWr Berkley+$166
Held since Aug 2023, the stock up 96%
The moves that cost the most
- INTCIntel−$166
Held from Aug 2021 to Aug 2023, the stock down 30%
- CCitigroup−$18
Held from Feb 2022 to Aug 2023, the stock down 31%
- BABAAlibaba−$11
Held from Aug 2021 to May 2023, the stock down 49%
Held from Feb 2026 to May 2026, the stock down 14%
- TRPTc Energy−$2
Held from May 2021 to Aug 2021, the stock down 4%
Held from Aug 2022 to Nov 2022, the stock down 8%
Year by year
| Year | Copy | S&P 500 | Gap, pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020from Feb 2020 | +79.6% | +13.1% | +66.5 |
| 2021 | +24.8% | +28.7% | −3.9 |
| 2022 | −19.5% | −18.2% | −1.3 |
| 2023 | +49.5% | +26.2% | +23.3 |
| 2024 | −18.6% | +24.9% | −43.5 |
| 2025 | +28.1% | +17.7% | +10.4 |
| 2026to Nov 2026 | +26.1% | +11.5% | +14.6 |
A historical test on paper, before costs and taxes. It trades at the close of the first trading day after each filing comes out, up to 45 days after the quarter, and skips delisted companies, which flatters it.