What if you had copied J. French Hill?
Republican, AR-2
The verdict
Copying J. French Hill's reported trades from Dec 2023 would have turned $10,000 into $15,240, less than the S&P 500 did.
The S&P 500 turned the same $10,000 into $16,572 over the same days. The copy returned +15.6% a year against +19.0% for the S&P 500, 3.4 points a year behind. Its worst fall was 15.4%, from Feb 6, 2025 to Apr 8, 2025. The S&P 500's worst fall over the test was 18.8%.
Copied Dec 14, 2023 to Nov 9, 2026 · House trade reports and daily closes
What $10,000 became
- Copying J. French Hill$15,240
- S&P 500$16,572
- Kept every buy and ignored their sales$15,407
If you had kept every buy and ignored their sales, you would have ended at $15,407, so following every move cost $167.
- $10,000 copied
- $15,240
- +52.4%, +15.6% a year
- In the S&P 500
- $16,572
- +65.7%, +19.0% a year
- Kept every buy
- $15,407
- Their sales ignored
- Worst fall
- −15.4%
- Feb 6, 2025 to Apr 8, 2025
- Trades
- 10
- 9 buys, 1 sales
The moves that made the most
The moves that cost the most
- INTCIntel−$192
Held from Dec 2023 to Jul 2025, the stock down 54%
Held since Dec 2023, the stock down 50%
Year by year
| Year | Copy | S&P 500 | Gap, pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023from Dec 2023 | +1.7% | +1.1% | +0.6 |
| 2024 | +24.4% | +24.9% | −0.5 |
| 2025 | +19.8% | +17.7% | +2.1 |
| 2026to Nov 2026 | +0.5% | +11.5% | −11.0 |
A historical test on paper, before costs and taxes. It trades at the close of the first trading day after each report comes out, up to 45 days after the trade, sizes from reported ranges, and skips delisted companies, which flatters it.