What if you had copied Michael K. Simpson?
Republican, ID-2
The verdict
Copying Michael K. Simpson's reported trades from May 2023 would have turned $10,000 into $17,396, less than the S&P 500 did.
The S&P 500 turned the same $10,000 into $19,077 over the same days. The copy returned +17.2% a year against +20.3% for the S&P 500, 3.1 points a year behind. Its worst fall was 32.3%, from Nov 26, 2024 to Apr 8, 2025. The S&P 500's worst fall over the test was 18.8%.
Copied May 15, 2023 to Nov 9, 2026 · House trade reports and daily closes
What $10,000 became
- Copying Michael K. Simpson$17,396
- S&P 500$19,077
- Kept every buy and ignored their sales$17,396
If you had kept every buy and ignored their sales, you would have ended at about the same place, $17,396.
- $10,000 copied
- $17,396
- +74.0%, +17.2% a year
- In the S&P 500
- $19,077
- +90.8%, +20.3% a year
- Kept every buy
- $17,396
- Their sales ignored
- Worst fall
- −32.3%
- Nov 26, 2024 to Apr 8, 2025
- Trades
- 3
- 3 buys, 0 sales
The moves that made the most
- USBU.S. Bancorp+$6,316
Held since May 2023, the stock up 142%
- TROWT. Rowe Price+$1,089
Held since May 2023, the stock up 24%
The moves that cost the most
Held since May 2023, the stock down 1%
Year by year
| Year | Copy | S&P 500 | Gap, pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023from May 2023 | +24.9% | +16.4% | +8.5 |
| 2024 | +14.4% | +24.9% | −10.5 |
| 2025 | +6.2% | +17.7% | −11.5 |
| 2026to Nov 2026 | +14.6% | +11.5% | +3.1 |
A historical test on paper, before costs and taxes. It trades at the close of the first trading day after each report comes out, up to 45 days after the trade, sizes from reported ranges, and skips delisted companies, which flatters it.