What if you had copied Mike Kelly?
Republican, PA-16
The verdict
Copying Mike Kelly's reported trades from Jun 2024 would have turned $10,000 into $8,261, less than the S&P 500 did.
The S&P 500 turned the same $10,000 into $14,196 over the same days. The copy returned −7.7% a year against +15.7% for the S&P 500, 23 points a year behind. Its worst fall was 64.0%, from Jul 15, 2024 to May 30, 2025. The S&P 500's worst fall over the test was 18.8%.
Copied Jun 17, 2024 to Nov 9, 2026 · House trade reports and daily closes
What $10,000 became
- Copying Mike Kelly$8,262
- S&P 500$14,196
- Kept every buy and ignored their sales$8,262
If you had kept every buy and ignored their sales, you would have ended at about the same place, $8,261.
- $10,000 copied
- $8,261
- −17.4%, −7.7% a year
- In the S&P 500
- $14,196
- +42.0%, +15.7% a year
- Kept every buy
- $8,261
- Their sales ignored
- Worst fall
- −64.0%
- Jul 15, 2024 to May 30, 2025
- Trades
- 1
- 1 buys, 0 sales
The moves that made the most
No position made money for the copy.
The moves that cost the most
- CLFCleveland-Cliffs−$1,739
Held since Jun 2024, the stock down 17%
Year by year
| Year | Copy | S&P 500 | Gap, pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024from Jun 2024 | −36.7% | +8.2% | −44.8 |
| 2025 | +41.3% | +17.7% | +23.6 |
| 2026to Nov 2026 | −7.7% | +11.5% | −19.2 |
A historical test on paper, before costs and taxes. It trades at the close of the first trading day after each report comes out, up to 45 days after the trade, sizes from reported ranges, and skips delisted companies, which flatters it.