What if you had copied Dalal Street?
Mohnish Pabrai
The verdict
Copying Dalal Street's 13F filings from Feb 2020 would have turned $10,000 into $12,289, less than the S&P 500 did.
The S&P 500 turned the same $10,000 into $24,576 over the same days. The copy returned +3.1% a year against +14.3% for the S&P 500, 11 points a year behind. Its worst fall was 66.2%, from Feb 26, 2024 to Apr 4, 2025. The S&P 500's worst fall over the test was 33.7%.
Copied Feb 14, 2020 to Nov 9, 2026 · SEC 13F filings and daily closes
What $10,000 became
- Copying Dalal Street$12,289
- S&P 500$24,576
- Bought their first portfolio and never traded$128,540
If you had bought their first portfolio and never traded, you would have ended at $128,540, so following every move cost $116,251.
- $10,000 copied
- $12,289
- +22.9%, +3.1% a year
- In the S&P 500
- $24,576
- +145.8%, +14.3% a year
- No trading
- $128,540
- Bought their first portfolio and never traded
- Worst fall
- −66.2%
- Feb 26, 2024 to Apr 4, 2025
- Trades
- 22
- 13 buys, 9 sales over 27 filings; about 62% of the copy traded a year
The moves that made the most
- VALValaris+$1,921
Held from May 2025 to May 2026, the stock up 170%
- HCCWarrior Met Coal+$1,517
Held since Feb 2024, the stock up 53%
- RIGTransocean+$543
Held since Nov 2025, the stock up 29%
- NENoble+$458
Held from May 2025 to Feb 2026, the stock up 88%
The moves that cost the most
- SRGSeritage Growth Prop−$1,271
Held from Aug 2020 to Aug 2023, the stock down 30%
- BABAAlibaba−$561
Held from May 2021 to Feb 2022, the stock down 40%
Held since Aug 2023, the stock down 18%
Held from Feb 2020 to Aug 2023
Held from Feb 2023 to May 2023, the stock down 10%
- BNBrookfield−$27
Held from Feb 2023 to Aug 2023, the stock down 5%
Year by year
| Year | Copy | S&P 500 | Gap, pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020from Feb 2020 | +12.0% | +12.8% | −0.8 |
| 2021 | +6.0% | +28.7% | −22.7 |
| 2022 | −49.0% | −18.2% | −30.8 |
| 2023 | +137.8% | +26.2% | +111.6 |
| 2024 | −32.6% | +24.9% | −57.5 |
| 2025 | +15.9% | +17.7% | −1.8 |
| 2026to Nov 2026 | +9.3% | +11.5% | −2.2 |
A historical test on paper, before costs and taxes. It trades at the close of the first trading day after each filing comes out, up to 45 days after the quarter, and skips delisted companies, which flatters it.