What if you had copied Paulson & Co.?
John Paulson
The verdict
Copying Paulson & Co.'s 13F filings from Feb 2020 would have turned $10,000 into $22,127, less than the S&P 500 did.
The S&P 500 turned the same $10,000 into $24,639 over the same days. The copy returned +12.5% a year against +14.4% for the S&P 500, 1.8 points a year behind. Its worst fall was 46.5%, from Nov 12, 2021 to Sep 27, 2022. The S&P 500's worst fall over the test was 33.7%.
Copied Feb 18, 2020 to Nov 9, 2026 · SEC 13F filings and daily closes
What $10,000 became
- Copying Paulson & Co.$22,127
- S&P 500$24,639
- Bought their first portfolio and never traded$21,421
If you had bought their first portfolio and never traded, you would have ended at $21,421, so following every move earned $705 more.
- $10,000 copied
- $22,127
- +121.3%, +12.5% a year
- In the S&P 500
- $24,639
- +146.4%, +14.4% a year
- No trading
- $21,421
- Bought their first portfolio and never traded
- Worst fall
- −46.5%
- Nov 12, 2021 to Sep 27, 2022
- Trades
- 76
- 42 buys, 34 sales over 27 filings; about 55% of the copy traded a year
The moves that made the most
- AAMIAcadian Asset Management+$5,080
Held since Feb 2020, the stock up 830%
- MDGLMadrigal Pharmaceuticals+$3,906
Held since Aug 2023, the stock up 148%
- PPTAPerpetua Resources+$2,338
Held since May 2021, the stock up 147%
- AEMAgnico Eagle Mines+$1,046
Held from Feb 2020 to Aug 2026, the stock up 435%
Held from Feb 2021 to Nov 2022, the stock up 181%
- APA+$648
Held from Aug 2021 to Feb 2023, the stock up 151%
The moves that cost the most
- BHCBausch Health Cos−$1,667
Held since Feb 2020, the stock down 70%
- THRYThryv−$727
Held since Feb 2021, the stock down 95%
- NGNovagold Resources−$382
Held since Feb 2020, the stock down 27%
- VTRSViatris−$214
Held from Feb 2021 to Feb 2022, the stock down 15%
- SSRMSsr Mining−$199
Held from Feb 2020 to May 2024, the stock down 70%
- DIDIYDidi Global−$164
Held from Aug 2021 to Aug 2022, the stock down 66%
Year by year
| Year | Copy | S&P 500 | Gap, pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020from Feb 2020 | +10.3% | +13.1% | −2.8 |
| 2021 | +7.9% | +28.7% | −20.8 |
| 2022 | −31.0% | −18.2% | −12.8 |
| 2023 | +6.6% | +26.2% | −19.6 |
| 2024 | +38.5% | +24.9% | +13.6 |
| 2025 | +85.8% | +17.7% | +68.1 |
| 2026to Nov 2026 | −1.8% | +11.5% | −13.3 |
A historical test on paper, before costs and taxes. It trades at the close of the first trading day after each filing comes out, up to 45 days after the quarter, and skips delisted companies, which flatters it.