What if you had copied Rick Larsen?
Democrat, WA-2
The verdict
Copying Rick Larsen's reported trades from May 2023 would have turned $10,000 into $13,938, less than the S&P 500 did.
The S&P 500 turned the same $10,000 into $18,752 over the same days. The copy returned +10.1% a year against +20.0% for the S&P 500, 9.9 points a year behind. Its worst fall was 15.1%, from Nov 29, 2024 to Apr 8, 2025. The S&P 500's worst fall over the test was 18.8%.
Copied May 30, 2023 to Nov 9, 2026 · House trade reports and daily closes
What $10,000 became
- Copying Rick Larsen$13,938
- S&P 500$18,752
- Kept every buy and ignored their sales$14,504
If you had kept every buy and ignored their sales, you would have ended at $14,504, so following every move cost $565.
- $10,000 copied
- $13,938
- +39.4%, +10.1% a year
- In the S&P 500
- $18,752
- +87.5%, +20.0% a year
- Kept every buy
- $14,504
- Their sales ignored
- Worst fall
- −15.1%
- Nov 29, 2024 to Apr 8, 2025
- Trades
- 64
- 45 buys, 19 sales
The moves that made the most
- COSTCostco Wholesale+$628
Held since May 2023, the stock up 119%
- TJXTJX Companies+$466
Held since Jun 2023, the stock up 88%
Held since Jul 2023, the stock up 88%
- GSGoldman Sachs+$417
Held since Jul 2024, the stock up 95%
Held from May 2023 to Jan 2026, the stock up 31%
- MAMastercard+$324
Held since Jul 2023, the stock up 68%
The moves that cost the most
- HSYHershey−$165
Held from May 2023 to Jan 2024, the stock down 26%
Held from Jul 2024 to Oct 2025, the stock down 29%
Held from Oct 2025 to Jul 2026, the stock down 28%
Held from Jan 2025 to Apr 2026, the stock down 27%
- ZTSZoetis−$115
Held from Jan 2024 to Oct 2025, the stock down 23%
Held from May 2023 to Jan 2024, the stock down 20%
Year by year
| Year | Copy | S&P 500 | Gap, pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023from May 2023 | +10.7% | +14.4% | −3.7 |
| 2024 | +11.9% | +24.9% | −13.0 |
| 2025 | +2.5% | +17.7% | −15.2 |
| 2026to Nov 2026 | +9.8% | +11.5% | −1.7 |
A historical test on paper, before costs and taxes. It trades at the close of the first trading day after each report comes out, up to 45 days after the trade, sizes from reported ranges, and skips delisted companies, which flatters it.