What if you had copied Semper Augustus?
Chris Bloomstran
The verdict
Copying Semper Augustus's 13F filings from Feb 2020 would have turned $10,000 into $31,422, more than the S&P 500 did.
The S&P 500 turned the same $10,000 into $24,576 over the same days. The copy returned +18.5% a year against +14.3% for the S&P 500, 4.2 points a year ahead. Its worst fall was 31.2%, from Feb 21, 2020 to Mar 23, 2020. The S&P 500's worst fall over the test was 33.7%.
Copied Feb 14, 2020 to Nov 9, 2026 · SEC 13F filings and daily closes
What $10,000 became
- Copying Semper Augustus$31,422
- S&P 500$24,576
- Bought their first portfolio and never traded$23,093
If you had bought their first portfolio and never traded, you would have ended at $23,093, so following every move earned $8,329 more.
- $10,000 copied
- $31,422
- +214.2%, +18.5% a year
- In the S&P 500
- $24,576
- +145.8%, +14.3% a year
- No trading
- $23,093
- Bought their first portfolio and never traded
- Worst fall
- −31.2%
- Feb 21, 2020 to Mar 23, 2020
- Trades
- 93
- 71 buys, 22 sales over 27 filings; about 33% of the copy traded a year
The moves that made the most
- BRK.BBerkshire Hathaway+$3,411
Held since Feb 2020, the stock up 154%
- KGCKinross Gold+$2,948
Held since Feb 2020, the stock up 403%
- BRK.ABerkshire Hathaway+$2,350
Held since Feb 2020, the stock up 151%
- MCYMercury General+$1,919
Held from Feb 2020 to May 2025, the stock up 48%
- NEMNewmont+$1,868
Held since Feb 2020, the stock up 241%
- VLOValero Energy+$1,402
Held since Feb 2021, the stock up 534%
The moves that cost the most
- DECKDeckers Outdoor−$199
Held since Aug 2025, the stock down 14%
- SKYDSkydance−$171
Held since Nov 2025, the stock down 44%
Held since May 2026, the stock down 6%
Held since Feb 2020
Held from Feb 2020 to May 2020, the stock down 11%
- INTCIntel−$18
Held from Feb 2020 to May 2020, the stock down 13%
Year by year
| Year | Copy | S&P 500 | Gap, pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020from Feb 2020 | +17.4% | +12.8% | +4.6 |
| 2021 | +28.4% | +28.7% | −0.3 |
| 2022 | +0.3% | −18.2% | +18.5 |
| 2023 | +10.3% | +26.2% | −15.9 |
| 2024 | +15.9% | +24.9% | −9.0 |
| 2025 | +42.3% | +17.7% | +24.6 |
| 2026to Nov 2026 | +14.1% | +11.5% | +2.7 |
A historical test on paper, before costs and taxes. It trades at the close of the first trading day after each filing comes out, up to 45 days after the quarter, and skips delisted companies, which flatters it.