What if you had copied Situational Awareness?
Leopold Aschenbrenner
The verdict
Copying Situational Awareness's 13F filings from Feb 2025 would have turned $10,000 into $14,718, more than the S&P 500 did.
The S&P 500 turned the same $10,000 into $12,616 over the same days. The copy returned +24.9% a year against +14.3% for the S&P 500, 11 points a year ahead. Its worst fall was 57.3%, from Jun 22, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026. The S&P 500's worst fall over the test was 18.8%.
Copied Feb 13, 2025 to Nov 9, 2026 · SEC 13F filings and daily closes
What $10,000 became
- Copying Situational Awareness$14,718
- S&P 500$12,616
- Bought their first portfolio and never traded$13,512
If you had bought their first portfolio and never traded, you would have ended at $13,512, so following every move earned $1,205 more.
- $10,000 copied
- $14,718
- +47.2%, +24.9% a year
- In the S&P 500
- $12,616
- +26.2%, +14.3% a year
- No trading
- $13,512
- Bought their first portfolio and never traded
- Worst fall
- −57.3%
- Jun 22, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026
- Trades
- 75
- 49 buys, 26 sales over 7 filings; about 167% of the copy traded a year
The moves that made the most
- BEBloom Energy+$2,154
Held since Feb 2026, the stock up 40%
- IREN+$1,370
Held since May 2025, the stock up 180%
- CRWVCoreweave+$1,225
Held since May 2025
- LITELumentum+$1,010
Held from Feb 2026 to May 2026, the stock up 53%
- AVGOBroadcom+$998
Held from May 2025 to Nov 2025, the stock up 48%
- APLDApplied Digital+$993
Held since May 2025, the stock up 196%
The moves that cost the most
- MUMicron Technology−$1,730
Held since May 2026
- MRVLMarvell Technology−$1,258
Held from Feb 2025 to May 2025, the stock down 37%
- NBISNebius−$664
Held since Aug 2026, the stock down 47%
- SNDKSandisk−$633
Held since Nov 2025
- SHAZSharonai−$307
Held since May 2026, the stock down 54%
- VSTVistra−$306
Held from Feb 2025 to Feb 2026, the stock down 1%
Year by year
| Year | Copy | S&P 500 | Gap, pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025from Feb 2025 | +30.3% | +13.2% | +17.1 |
| 2026to Nov 2026 | +13.0% | +11.5% | +1.5 |
A historical test on paper, before costs and taxes. It trades at the close of the first trading day after each filing comes out, up to 45 days after the quarter, and skips delisted companies, which flatters it.