What if you had copied Third Point?
Dan Loeb
The verdict
Copying Third Point's 13F filings from Feb 2020 would have turned $10,000 into $14,847, less than the S&P 500 did.
The S&P 500 turned the same $10,000 into $24,576 over the same days. The copy returned +6.0% a year against +14.3% for the S&P 500, 8.2 points a year behind. Its worst fall was 47.5%, from Oct 21, 2021 to Jun 16, 2022. The S&P 500's worst fall over the test was 33.7%.
Copied Feb 14, 2020 to Nov 9, 2026 · SEC 13F filings and daily closes
What $10,000 became
- Copying Third Point$14,847
- S&P 500$24,576
- Bought their first portfolio and never traded$10,284
If you had bought their first portfolio and never traded, you would have ended at $10,284, so following every move earned $4,563 more.
- $10,000 copied
- $14,847
- +48.5%, +6.0% a year
- In the S&P 500
- $24,576
- +145.8%, +14.3% a year
- No trading
- $10,284
- Bought their first portfolio and never traded
- Worst fall
- −47.5%
- Oct 21, 2021 to Jun 16, 2022
- Trades
- 444
- 239 buys, 205 sales over 27 filings; about 110% of the copy traded a year
The moves that made the most
- AMZNAmazon.com+$1,001
Held since Feb 2020, the stock up 163%
- VSTVistra+$980
Held from May 2023 to May 2026, the stock up 483%
Held since Aug 2023, the stock up 348%
- PCGP G & E+$772
Held from Nov 2020 to May 2026, the stock up 39%
- DHRDanaher+$532
Held since Feb 2020, the stock up 53%
Held since Nov 2024, the stock up 75%
The moves that cost the most
- SSentinelone−$819
Held from Aug 2021 to May 2023, the stock down 61%
- UPSTUpstart−$784
Held from Feb 2021 to May 2022, the stock down 47%
- CSGPCostar−$513
Held from May 2021 to May 2026, the stock down 69%
Held from Nov 2024 to Feb 2026, the stock down 53%
- FLEX−$272
Held since Aug 2026, the stock down 40%
- HUTHut 8−$246
Held since May 2026, the stock down 41%
Year by year
| Year | Copy | S&P 500 | Gap, pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020from Feb 2020 | +16.2% | +12.8% | +3.4 |
| 2021 | +24.5% | +28.7% | −4.3 |
| 2022 | −27.1% | −18.2% | −8.9 |
| 2023 | +9.9% | +26.2% | −16.3 |
| 2024 | +28.0% | +24.9% | +3.1 |
| 2025 | +7.9% | +17.7% | −9.8 |
| 2026to Nov 2026 | −7.2% | +11.5% | −18.7 |
A historical test on paper, before costs and taxes. It trades at the close of the first trading day after each filing comes out, up to 45 days after the quarter, and skips delisted companies, which flatters it.