What if you had copied Earl Blumenauer?
House member, OR-3
This record ended in December 2024, when they left the House. It is shown here but not ranked.
The verdict
Copying Earl Blumenauer's reported trades from Mar 2023 until Dec 2024 would have turned $10,000 into $11,577, less than the S&P 500 did.
The S&P 500 turned the same $10,000 into $16,057 over the same days. The copy returned +8.7% a year against +31.0% for the S&P 500, 22 points a year behind. Its worst fall was 12.8%, from May 4, 2023 to Jun 1, 2023. The S&P 500's worst fall over the test was 10.0%.
Copied Mar 10, 2023 to Dec 9, 2024 · House trade reports and daily closes
What $10,000 became
- Copying Earl Blumenauer$11,577
- S&P 500$16,057
- Kept every buy and ignored their sales$11,708
If you had kept every buy and ignored their sales, you would have ended at $11,708, so following every move cost $131. The test stops on Dec 9, 2024, when they left the House, so there was nothing left to follow.
- $10,000 copied
- $11,577
- +15.8%, +8.7% a year
- In the S&P 500
- $16,057
- +60.6%, +31.0% a year
- Kept every buy
- $11,708
- Their sales ignored
- Worst fall
- −12.8%
- May 4, 2023 to Jun 1, 2023
- Trades
- 23
- 22 buys, 1 sales
The moves that made the most
- MOHMolina Healthcare+$1,024
Held from Jul 2023 until the record ended in Dec 2024, the stock up 6%
- AMZNAmazon.com+$342
Held from Mar 2024 until the record ended in Dec 2024, the stock up 27%
- SYYSysco+$306
Held from Sep 2023 until the record ended in Dec 2024, the stock up 21%
- SOSouthern+$201
Held from May 2024 until the record ended in Dec 2024, the stock up 15%
- PYPLPayPal+$160
Held from Jun 2023 to Dec 2023
Held from Mar 2024 until the record ended in Dec 2024, the stock up 29%
The moves that cost the most
- NWNNorthwest Natural−$317
Held from Mar 2023 until the record ended in Dec 2024, the stock down 0%
- NKENike−$216
Held from May 2024 until the record ended in Dec 2024, the stock down 16%
Held from Aug 2024 until the record ended in Dec 2024, the stock down 12%
- DEODiageo−$75
Held from Jan 2024 until the record ended in Dec 2024, the stock down 10%
Year by year
| Year | Copy | S&P 500 | Gap, pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023from Mar 2023 | +8.6% | +25.0% | −16.5 |
| 2024to Dec 2024 | +6.6% | +28.4% | −21.8 |
A historical test on paper, before costs and taxes. It trades at the close of the first trading day after each report comes out, up to 45 days after the trade, sizes from reported ranges, and skips delisted companies, which flatters it.