What if you had copied Jefferson Shreve?
Republican, IN-6
The verdict
Copying Jefferson Shreve's reported trades from Mar 2025 would have turned $10,000 into $10,681, less than the S&P 500 did.
The S&P 500 turned the same $10,000 into $13,722 over the same days. The copy returned +4.0% a year against +20.9% for the S&P 500, 17 points a year behind. Its worst fall was 27.1%, from Jan 15, 2026 to Apr 29, 2026. The S&P 500's worst fall over the test was 13.7%.
Copied Mar 10, 2025 to Nov 9, 2026 · House trade reports and daily closes
What $10,000 became
- Copying Jefferson Shreve$10,681
- S&P 500$13,722
- Kept every buy and ignored their sales$14,109
If you had kept every buy and ignored their sales, you would have ended at $14,109, so following every move cost $3,428.
- $10,000 copied
- $10,681
- +6.8%, +4.0% a year
- In the S&P 500
- $13,722
- +37.2%, +20.9% a year
- Kept every buy
- $14,109
- Their sales ignored
- Worst fall
- −27.1%
- Jan 15, 2026 to Apr 29, 2026
- Trades
- 363
- 189 buys, 174 sales
The moves that made the most
- HEI.AHeico+$152
Held since Apr 2025, the stock up 26%
Held from Mar 2025 to Jun 2025, the stock up 53%
- AVGOBroadcom+$86
Held from Mar 2025 to Jun 2025, the stock up 38%
Held from Apr 2025 to Jun 2025, the stock up 35%
- INTUIntuit+$55
Held from May 2025 to Jun 2025, the stock up 17%
Held from Apr 2025 to Jun 2025, the stock up 37%
The moves that cost the most
- ABBVAbbVie−$85
Held from Mar 2025 to May 2025, the stock down 14%
- UNHUnitedHealth−$54
Held from Apr 2025 to Jun 2025, the stock down 48%
- BCBrunswick−$50
Held from Mar 2025 to May 2025, the stock down 18%
- MRKMerck−$40
Held from Mar 2025 to May 2025, the stock down 20%
- ADBEAdobe−$38
Held from Mar 2025 to Jun 2025, the stock down 12%
Held from Mar 2025 to Jun 2025, the stock down 11%
Year by year
| Year | Copy | S&P 500 | Gap, pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025from Mar 2025 | +5.4% | +23.1% | −17.7 |
| 2026to Nov 2026 | +1.3% | +11.5% | −10.2 |
A historical test on paper, before costs and taxes. It trades at the close of the first trading day after each report comes out, up to 45 days after the trade, sizes from reported ranges, and skips delisted companies, which flatters it.