What if you had copied John James?
Republican, MI-10
The verdict
Copying John James's reported trades from Sep 2024 would have turned $10,000 into $12,654, less than the S&P 500 did.
The S&P 500 turned the same $10,000 into $14,023 over the same days. The copy returned +11.4% a year against +16.8% for the S&P 500, 5.4 points a year behind. Its worst fall was 26.6%, from Dec 2, 2024 to Apr 8, 2025. The S&P 500's worst fall over the test was 18.8%.
Copied Sep 3, 2024 to Nov 9, 2026 · House trade reports and daily closes
What $10,000 became
- Copying John James$12,654
- S&P 500$14,023
- Kept every buy and ignored their sales$14,743
If you had kept every buy and ignored their sales, you would have ended at $14,743, so following every move cost $2,089.
- $10,000 copied
- $12,654
- +26.5%, +11.4% a year
- In the S&P 500
- $14,023
- +40.2%, +16.8% a year
- Kept every buy
- $14,743
- Their sales ignored
- Worst fall
- −26.6%
- Dec 2, 2024 to Apr 8, 2025
- Trades
- 225
- 118 buys, 107 sales
The moves that made the most
- XOMExxon Mobil+$875
Held since Sep 2024, the stock up 51%
- ETNEaton+$654
Held since Sep 2024, the stock up 27%
- ALLEAllegion+$555
Held since Sep 2024, the stock up 43%
Held since Sep 2024, the stock up 22%
- LVSLas Vegas Sands+$227
Held since Sep 2024, the stock up 9%
- SPCXSpaceX+$73
Held since Jul 2026, the stock up 2%
The moves that cost the most
- DLTRDollar Tree−$18
Held from Sep 2024 to Sep 2024, the stock down 17%
- AVGOBroadcom−$8
Held from Sep 2024 to Sep 2024, the stock down 8%
- CIENCiena−$7
Held from Sep 2024 to Sep 2024, the stock down 7%
Held from Sep 2024 to Sep 2024, the stock down 3%
Held from Sep 2024 to Sep 2024, the stock down 6%
Held from Sep 2024 to Sep 2024, the stock down 6%
Year by year
| Year | Copy | S&P 500 | Gap, pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024from Sep 2024 | +6.8% | +6.8% | 0.0 |
| 2025 | +13.4% | +17.7% | −4.3 |
| 2026to Nov 2026 | +4.5% | +11.5% | −7.0 |
A historical test on paper, before costs and taxes. It trades at the close of the first trading day after each report comes out, up to 45 days after the trade, sizes from reported ranges, and skips delisted companies, which flatters it.