What if you had copied Kevin Hern?
Republican, OK-1
The verdict
Copying Kevin Hern's reported trades from Jan 2023 would have turned $10,000 into $13,079, less than the S&P 500 did.
The S&P 500 turned the same $10,000 into $19,884 over the same days. The copy returned +7.3% a year against +19.8% for the S&P 500, 12 points a year behind. Its worst fall was 17.4%, from Jan 26, 2023 to Mar 15, 2023. The S&P 500's worst fall over the test was 18.8%.
Copied Jan 17, 2023 to Nov 9, 2026 · House trade reports and daily closes
What $10,000 became
- Copying Kevin Hern$13,079
- S&P 500$19,884
- Kept every buy and ignored their sales$14,062
If you had kept every buy and ignored their sales, you would have ended at $14,062, so following every move cost $984.
- $10,000 copied
- $13,079
- +30.8%, +7.3% a year
- In the S&P 500
- $19,884
- +98.8%, +19.8% a year
- Kept every buy
- $14,062
- Their sales ignored
- Worst fall
- −17.4%
- Jan 26, 2023 to Mar 15, 2023
- Trades
- 171
- 134 buys, 37 sales
The moves that made the most
Held since Apr 2023, the stock up 112%
- JPMJP Morgan Chase+$628
Held since Feb 2023, the stock up 176%
- EMREmerson Electric+$553
Held since Jan 2023, the stock up 99%
- OKEONEOK+$502
Held from Mar 2023 to Sep 2026, the stock up 74%
Held since Jan 2023, the stock up 137%
- XOMExxon Mobil+$421
Held from Jan 2023 to Sep 2026, the stock up 63%
The moves that cost the most
- DVNDevon Energy−$1,321
Held from Jan 2023 to Jan 2025, the stock down 34%
- UNHUnitedHealth−$90
Held from Jan 2023 to Jan 2026, the stock down 22%
Held from Jan 2023 to Jan 2025, the stock down 12%
Held from Jan 2023 to Oct 2026, the stock down 1%
- AGCO−$1
Held from Jul 2024 to Jan 2025, the stock down 1%
- INTCIntel−$0
Held from Jan 2023 to Jan 2025, the stock down 39%
Year by year
| Year | Copy | S&P 500 | Gap, pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023from Jan 2023 | −3.8% | +21.3% | −25.1 |
| 2024 | +10.0% | +24.9% | −14.9 |
| 2025 | +7.9% | +17.7% | −9.8 |
| 2026to Nov 2026 | +14.5% | +11.5% | +3.0 |
A historical test on paper, before costs and taxes. It trades at the close of the first trading day after each report comes out, up to 45 days after the trade, sizes from reported ranges, and skips delisted companies, which flatters it.