What if you had copied Michael Guest?
Republican, MS-3
The verdict
Copying Michael Guest's reported trades from Aug 2023 would have turned $10,000 into $16,855, less than the S&P 500 did.
The S&P 500 turned the same $10,000 into $17,968 over the same days. The copy returned +17.7% a year against +20.0% for the S&P 500, 2.4 points a year behind. Its worst fall was 22.1%, from Dec 4, 2024 to Apr 8, 2025. The S&P 500's worst fall over the test was 18.8%.
Copied Aug 24, 2023 to Nov 9, 2026 · House trade reports and daily closes
What $10,000 became
- Copying Michael Guest$16,855
- S&P 500$17,968
- Kept every buy and ignored their sales$17,217
If you had kept every buy and ignored their sales, you would have ended at $17,217, so following every move cost $362.
- $10,000 copied
- $16,855
- +68.6%, +17.7% a year
- In the S&P 500
- $17,968
- +79.7%, +20.0% a year
- Kept every buy
- $17,217
- Their sales ignored
- Worst fall
- −22.1%
- Dec 4, 2024 to Apr 8, 2025
- Trades
- 46
- 40 buys, 6 sales
The moves that made the most
- NVDANVIDIA+$937
Held since Aug 2023, the stock up 280%
- ANETArista Networks+$626
Held since Nov 2023, the stock up 246%
Held since Nov 2023, the stock up 200%
- VLOValero Energy+$494
Held since Aug 2023, the stock up 197%
- ALLAllstate+$432
Held since Aug 2023, the stock up 158%
- JPMJP Morgan Chase+$383
Held since Aug 2023, the stock up 149%
The moves that cost the most
- CHRDChord Energy−$259
Held from Aug 2023 to Feb 2026, the stock down 25%
- MNDYmonday.com−$159
Held since Dec 2024, the stock down 66%
Held from Dec 2023 to Feb 2026, the stock down 43%
- DTDynatrace−$82
Held from Dec 2023 to Feb 2026, the stock down 33%
- ELFe.l.f. Beauty−$46
Held from Aug 2023 to Aug 2026, the stock down 22%
Held since Aug 2023, the stock down 6%
Year by year
| Year | Copy | S&P 500 | Gap, pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023from Aug 2023 | +7.3% | +9.6% | −2.3 |
| 2024 | +16.8% | +24.9% | −8.1 |
| 2025 | +17.8% | +17.7% | +0.1 |
| 2026to Nov 2026 | +14.1% | +11.5% | +2.6 |
A historical test on paper, before costs and taxes. It trades at the close of the first trading day after each report comes out, up to 45 days after the trade, sizes from reported ranges, and skips delisted companies, which flatters it.