Dollar General

DG · NYSE · Consumer Staples

$106.27▼ -3.33%

$3.66 today

Mkt cap $23.44B
P/E 15.0
Day $105.55 – $115.00

Confidence

High conviction

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The read

Dollar General misses Q4 EPS by 100%, shares drop over 3%

Dollar General reported Q4 EPS of $0.00 versus an estimate of $1.49, missing expectations by 100%. The stock declined 3.3% on the day, reflecting investor disappointment. Despite the miss, valuation remains attractive with a forward P/E 33% below sector average. Investors should monitor margin trends and next-quarter guidance for signs of recovery or further weakness.

Confidence note: Reported EPS miss is definitive; valuation and institutional data are reliable; guidance unknown, limiting full outlook clarity.

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What happened

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Earnings print

Reported EPS was $0.00, missing the estimate of $1.49 by 100%.

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Guidance

No explicit guidance update was provided in the data, leaving future outlook unclear.

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Price reaction

Shares fell 3.3% on the earnings day, closing near $106.27 after opening at $113.25.

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Street narrative

The earnings miss was significant, but valuation metrics remain strong with a forward P/E of 13.4 versus sector 19.9, suggesting the market is pricing in risk. Institutional ownership is high at 100.9%, but recent insider selling and below-average operating margins pose concerns.

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So what

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What changed

Dollar General missed Q4 EPS by 100%, reported $0.00 versus $1.49 estimate, shares fell 3.3%.

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What the market is pricing

Market reaction and valuation discount reflect concerns about margin pressure and execution risks.

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Fundamental takeaway

Downgrade bias; investors should watch next-quarter guidance and margin trends for recovery signals.

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Next 30–90 days

trending_upBull

39%

Margins stabilize or improve, and next-quarter guidance confirms earnings recovery, supporting multiple expansion.

boltNext-quarter EPS guidance above $1.40
boltOperating margin improvement above 5.5%

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34%

Margins remain pressured but stable; earnings gradually improve inline with modest growth expectations.

boltNext-quarter EPS guidance between $1.00 and $1.40
boltOperating margins stable around 5%

trending_downBear

27%

Margins deteriorate further, earnings miss persist, and guidance is lowered, leading to multiple contraction and share price decline.

boltNext-quarter EPS guidance below $1.00
boltOperating margins fall below 4.5%

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What to do

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If you hold it

Hold unless next-quarter revenue misses guidance materially or customer concentration risk worsens.

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If you're watching

Add only if next-quarter guidance is reiterated or raised; avoid if guidance is cut or geopolitical risk escalates.

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Keep on your radar

Next-quarter EPS guidance release (expected within 30-45 days)
Operating margin trends in quarterly reports
Insider activity updates over next 90 days
Institutional ownership changes