What if you had copied Kathy Manning?
House member, NC-6
This record ended in September 2024, when they left the House. It is shown here but not ranked.
The verdict
Copying Kathy Manning's reported trades from May 2023 until Sep 2024 would have turned $10,000 into $14,257, more than the S&P 500 did.
The S&P 500 turned the same $10,000 into $13,357 over the same days. The copy returned +31.6% a year against +25.1% for the S&P 500, 6.5 points a year ahead. Its worst fall was 12.1%, from Jul 31, 2023 to Oct 27, 2023. The S&P 500's worst fall over the test was 10.0%.
Copied May 22, 2023 to Sep 5, 2024 · House trade reports and daily closes
What $10,000 became
- Copying Kathy Manning$14,257
- S&P 500$13,357
- Kept every buy and ignored their sales$14,117
If you had kept every buy and ignored their sales, you would have ended at $14,117, so following every move earned $140 more. The test stops on Sep 5, 2024, when they left the House, so there was nothing left to follow.
- $10,000 copied
- $14,257
- +42.6%, +31.6% a year
- In the S&P 500
- $13,357
- +33.6%, +25.1% a year
- Kept every buy
- $14,117
- Their sales ignored
- Worst fall
- −12.1%
- Jul 31, 2023 to Oct 27, 2023
- Trades
- 148
- 116 buys, 32 sales
The moves that made the most
- NVDANVIDIA+$1,232
Held from May 2023 until the record ended in Sep 2024, the stock up 244%
- MSFTMicrosoft+$489
Held from May 2023 until the record ended in Sep 2024, the stock up 28%
Held from May 2023 until the record ended in Sep 2024, the stock up 61%
- QCOMQualcomm+$398
Held from May 2023 until the record ended in Sep 2024, the stock up 61%
- BXBlackstone+$364
Held from Aug 2023 until the record ended in Sep 2024, the stock up 39%
- INTUIntuit+$245
Held from May 2023 to Feb 2024, the stock up 42%
The moves that cost the most
- CRMSalesforce−$131
Held from Feb 2024 until the record ended in Sep 2024, the stock down 15%
- NKENike−$79
Held from Feb 2024 to Aug 2024, the stock down 19%
- PFEPfizer−$71
Held from May 2023 to Jan 2024, the stock down 25%
- MRKMerck−$51
Held from Feb 2024 until the record ended in Sep 2024, the stock down 6%
- PYPLPayPal−$38
Held from May 2023 to Jan 2024, the stock down 7%
- MSCI−$20
Held from Feb 2024 until the record ended in Sep 2024, the stock down 3%
Year by year
| Year | Copy | S&P 500 | Gap, pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023from May 2023 | +21.8% | +14.8% | +7.0 |
| 2024to Sep 2024 | +17.1% | +16.4% | +0.7 |
A historical test on paper, before costs and taxes. It trades at the close of the first trading day after each report comes out, up to 45 days after the trade, sizes from reported ranges, and skips delisted companies, which flatters it.