What if you had copied Nancy Pelosi?
Democrat, CA-11
The verdict
Copying Nancy Pelosi's reported trades from Apr 2023 would have turned $10,000 into $22,933, more than the S&P 500 did.
The S&P 500 turned the same $10,000 into $19,236 over the same days. The copy returned +26.1% a year against +20.0% for the S&P 500, 6.0 points a year ahead. Its worst fall was 30.9%, from Jan 6, 2025 to Apr 4, 2025. The S&P 500's worst fall over the test was 18.8%.
Copied Apr 10, 2023 to Nov 9, 2026 · House trade reports and daily closes
What $10,000 became
- Copying Nancy Pelosi$22,933
- S&P 500$19,236
- Kept every buy and ignored their sales$21,176
If you had kept every buy and ignored their sales, you would have ended at $21,176, so following every move earned $1,757 more.
- $10,000 copied
- $22,933
- +129.3%, +26.1% a year
- In the S&P 500
- $19,236
- +92.4%, +20.0% a year
- Kept every buy
- $21,176
- Their sales ignored
- Worst fall
- −30.9%
- Jan 6, 2025 to Apr 4, 2025
- Trades
- 21
- 16 buys, 5 sales
The moves that made the most
- NVDANVIDIA+$4,543
Held since Jul 2024, the stock up 40%
- PANWPalo Alto Networks+$3,498
Held since Jan 2025, the stock up 80%
- MSFTMicrosoft+$2,461
Held from Jun 2023 to Jul 2024, the stock up 26%
- AAPLApple+$2,386
Held from Apr 2023 to Jan 2025, the stock up 39%
- AVGOBroadcom+$946
Held since Jul 2025, the stock up 17%
- AMZNAmazon.com+$120
Held since Jan 2026, the stock up 12%
The moves that cost the most
- ABAllianceBernstein−$437
Held since Jan 2026, the stock down 11%
- INTCIntel−$265
Held since Aug 2026, the stock down 32%
- BEBloom Energy−$181
Held since Aug 2026, the stock down 4%
- GOOGLAlphabet−$102
Held since Jan 2026, the stock down 13%
- VSTVistra−$36
Held since Jan 2026, the stock down 15%
Year by year
| Year | Copy | S&P 500 | Gap, pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023from Apr 2023 | +26.0% | +17.4% | +8.6 |
| 2024 | +27.1% | +24.9% | +2.2 |
| 2025 | +29.8% | +17.7% | +12.1 |
| 2026to Nov 2026 | +10.3% | +11.5% | −1.2 |
A historical test on paper, before costs and taxes. It trades at the close of the first trading day after each report comes out, up to 45 days after the trade, sizes from reported ranges, and skips delisted companies, which flatters it.