What if you had copied Two Sigma Investments?
John Overdeck and David Siegel
The verdict
Copying Two Sigma Investments's 13F filings from Feb 2020 would have turned $10,000 into $23,354, less than the S&P 500 did.
The S&P 500 turned the same $10,000 into $24,639 over the same days. The copy returned +13.4% a year against +14.4% for the S&P 500, 0.9 points a year behind. Its worst fall was 34.5%, from Feb 19, 2020 to Mar 23, 2020. The S&P 500's worst fall over the test was 33.7%.
Copied Feb 18, 2020 to Nov 9, 2026 · SEC 13F filings and daily closes
What $10,000 became
- Copying Two Sigma Investments$23,354
- S&P 500$24,639
- Bought their first portfolio and never traded$20,292
If you had bought their first portfolio and never traded, you would have ended at $20,292, so following every move earned $3,062 more.
- $10,000 copied
- $23,354
- +133.5%, +13.4% a year
- In the S&P 500
- $24,639
- +146.4%, +14.4% a year
- No trading
- $20,292
- Bought their first portfolio and never traded
- Worst fall
- −34.5%
- Feb 19, 2020 to Mar 23, 2020
- Trades
- 1,288
- 669 buys, 619 sales over 27 filings; about 203% of the copy traded a year
The moves that made the most
Held since Feb 2021, the stock up 460%
- MRNAModerna+$889
Held since Aug 2021, the stock up 110%
- MUMicron Technology+$865
Held since Nov 2023, the stock up 322%
- APPAppLovin+$732
Held from Aug 2024 to May 2025, the stock up 323%
Held from May 2020 to May 2026, the stock up 165%
Held from May 2024 to Nov 2025, the stock up 250%
The moves that cost the most
Held since Nov 2025, the stock down 66%
- BSXBoston Scientific−$262
Held since May 2020, the stock down 50%
- ADBEAdobe−$240
Held from May 2022 to Aug 2026, the stock down 54%
- INTCIntel−$200
Held from Feb 2020 to May 2025, the stock down 53%
Held since May 2026, the stock down 57%
Held from Feb 2025 to May 2026, the stock down 45%
Year by year
| Year | Copy | S&P 500 | Gap, pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020from Feb 2020 | +13.7% | +13.1% | +0.6 |
| 2021 | +18.7% | +28.7% | −10.0 |
| 2022 | −15.9% | −18.2% | +2.3 |
| 2023 | +17.3% | +26.2% | −8.9 |
| 2024 | +29.0% | +24.9% | +4.1 |
| 2025 | +19.1% | +17.7% | +1.4 |
| 2026to Nov 2026 | +14.2% | +11.5% | +2.7 |
A historical test on paper, before costs and taxes. It trades at the close of the first trading day after each filing comes out, up to 45 days after the quarter, and skips delisted companies, which flatters it.