What if you had copied Dan Newhouse?
Republican, WA-4
The verdict
Copying Dan Newhouse's reported trades from May 2023 would have turned $10,000 into $15,849, less than the S&P 500 did.
The S&P 500 turned the same $10,000 into $18,752 over the same days. The copy returned +14.3% a year against +20.0% for the S&P 500, 5.7 points a year behind. Its worst fall was 20.5%, from Jan 30, 2025 to Apr 8, 2025. The S&P 500's worst fall over the test was 18.8%.
Copied May 30, 2023 to Nov 9, 2026 · House trade reports and daily closes
What $10,000 became
- Copying Dan Newhouse$15,849
- S&P 500$18,752
- Kept every buy and ignored their sales$17,361
If you had kept every buy and ignored their sales, you would have ended at $17,360, so following every move cost $1,512.
- $10,000 copied
- $15,849
- +58.5%, +14.3% a year
- In the S&P 500
- $18,752
- +87.5%, +20.0% a year
- Kept every buy
- $17,360
- Their sales ignored
- Worst fall
- −20.5%
- Jan 30, 2025 to Apr 8, 2025
- Trades
- 162
- 101 buys, 61 sales
The moves that made the most
Held since Sep 2025, the stock up 222%
- BLKBlackRock+$441
Held since May 2023, the stock up 96%
Held since Sep 2025, the stock up 96%
- VVisa+$378
Held since May 2023, the stock up 96%
- FTNTFortinet+$332
Held since May 2023, the stock up 79%
- MCOMoody's+$310
Held since May 2023, the stock up 67%
The moves that cost the most
Held from May 2023 to May 2025, the stock down 65%
- FMC−$228
Held from Apr 2024 to Jul 2026, the stock down 79%
- FISVFiserv−$226
Held since May 2023, the stock down 44%
- ZTSZoetis−$155
Held since May 2023, the stock down 46%
- ADBEAdobe−$146
Held from May 2023 to Jul 2026, the stock down 44%
Held since Jan 2026, the stock down 44%
Year by year
| Year | Copy | S&P 500 | Gap, pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023from May 2023 | +16.3% | +14.4% | +1.9 |
| 2024 | +15.8% | +24.9% | −9.1 |
| 2025 | −0.9% | +17.7% | −18.6 |
| 2026to Nov 2026 | +18.8% | +11.5% | +7.3 |
A historical test on paper, before costs and taxes. It trades at the close of the first trading day after each report comes out, up to 45 days after the trade, sizes from reported ranges, and skips delisted companies, which flatters it.