What if you had copied Millennium Management?
Israel Englander
The verdict
Copying Millennium Management's 13F filings from Feb 2020 would have turned $10,000 into $23,308, less than the S&P 500 did.
The S&P 500 turned the same $10,000 into $24,639 over the same days. The copy returned +13.4% a year against +14.4% for the S&P 500, 0.9 points a year behind. Its worst fall was 34.2%, from Feb 19, 2020 to Mar 23, 2020. The S&P 500's worst fall over the test was 33.7%.
Copied Feb 18, 2020 to Nov 9, 2026 · SEC 13F filings and daily closes
What $10,000 became
- Copying Millennium Management$23,308
- S&P 500$24,639
- Bought their first portfolio and never traded$26,069
If you had bought their first portfolio and never traded, you would have ended at $26,069, so following every move cost $2,761.
- $10,000 copied
- $23,308
- +133.1%, +13.4% a year
- In the S&P 500
- $24,639
- +146.4%, +14.4% a year
- No trading
- $26,069
- Bought their first portfolio and never traded
- Worst fall
- −34.2%
- Feb 19, 2020 to Mar 23, 2020
- Trades
- 1,208
- 627 buys, 581 sales over 27 filings; about 198% of the copy traded a year
The moves that made the most
- NVDANVIDIA+$1,501
Held since Feb 2020, the stock up 1,196%
- IVViShares Core S&P 500 ETF+$1,399
Held since May 2020, the stock up 109%
- AAPLApple+$861
Held from Feb 2020 to Aug 2026, the stock up 344%
- METAMeta Platforms+$724
Held since Feb 2020, the stock up 197%
- AMZNAmazon.com+$633
Held since Feb 2020, the stock up 121%
- GOOGLAlphabet+$560
Held from Feb 2020 to Aug 2026, the stock up 300%
The moves that cost the most
- BABAAlibaba−$344
Held from Feb 2020 to Feb 2022, the stock down 43%
Held since Aug 2026, the stock down 49%
- CRDOCredo Technology−$160
Held since Aug 2026, the stock down 53%
Held from May 2024 to Aug 2026, the stock down 2%
- INTCIntel−$135
Held from Feb 2020 to Aug 2025, the stock down 53%
Held from Feb 2020 to May 2023, the stock down 45%
Year by year
| Year | Copy | S&P 500 | Gap, pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020from Feb 2020 | +8.0% | +13.1% | −5.1 |
| 2021 | +19.8% | +28.7% | −9.0 |
| 2022 | −20.6% | −18.2% | −2.5 |
| 2023 | +29.0% | +26.2% | +2.8 |
| 2024 | +33.6% | +24.9% | +8.7 |
| 2025 | +19.4% | +17.7% | +1.7 |
| 2026to Nov 2026 | +10.4% | +11.5% | −1.1 |
A historical test on paper, before costs and taxes. It trades at the close of the first trading day after each filing comes out, up to 45 days after the quarter, and skips delisted companies, which flatters it.