What if you had copied John J. McGuire III?
Republican, VA-5
The verdict
Copying John J. McGuire III's reported trades from May 2025 would have turned $10,000 into $8,432, less than the S&P 500 did.
The S&P 500 turned the same $10,000 into $12,892 over the same days. The copy returned −10.9% a year against +18.8% for the S&P 500, 30 points a year behind. Its worst fall was 28.4%, from Jul 1, 2025 to Mar 27, 2026. The S&P 500's worst fall over the test was 8.9%.
Copied May 19, 2025 to Nov 9, 2026 · House trade reports and daily closes
What $10,000 became
- Copying John J. McGuire III$8,432
- S&P 500$12,892
- Kept every buy and ignored their sales$7,811
If you had kept every buy and ignored their sales, you would have ended at $7,811, so following every move earned $620 more.
- $10,000 copied
- $8,432
- −15.7%, −10.9% a year
- In the S&P 500
- $12,892
- +28.9%, +18.8% a year
- Kept every buy
- $7,811
- Their sales ignored
- Worst fall
- −28.4%
- Jul 1, 2025 to Mar 27, 2026
- Trades
- 19
- 16 buys, 3 sales
The moves that made the most
- UNHUnitedHealth+$533
Held since May 2025, the stock up 31%
- MSFTMicrosoft+$298
Held since Feb 2026, the stock up 34%
- AAPLApple+$108
Held since May 2026, the stock up 18%
The moves that cost the most
- NFLXNetflix−$1,228
Held since Jul 2025, the stock down 49%
Held since Aug 2026, the stock down 29%
- MUMicron Technology−$253
Held since Nov 2026, the stock down 12%
- NOWServiceNow−$251
Held from Jun 2025 to Jul 2025, the stock down 5%
- METAMeta Platforms−$239
Held since Jul 2025, the stock down 10%
- NVDANVIDIA−$180
Held since Feb 2026, the stock down 6%
Year by year
| Year | Copy | S&P 500 | Gap, pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025from May 2025 | −11.8% | +15.6% | −27.4 |
| 2026to Nov 2026 | −4.4% | +11.5% | −15.9 |
A historical test on paper, before costs and taxes. It trades at the close of the first trading day after each report comes out, up to 45 days after the trade, sizes from reported ranges, and skips delisted companies, which flatters it.