Analysis
Example portfolio, made-up shares
Example portfolio, made-up sharesprices from today's close
How the money sits
Spread like
12 equal bets
The S&P 500 spreads like 47
Sectors, funds opened
SectorYoursYouS&P 500
- TechnologyAAPLMSFTNVDA55%37%
- FinancialsJPMBRK.BV9.6%13%
- EnergyXOMCVXBKR8.5%3.4%
- Consumer StaplesCOSTWMTPEP7.5%5.4%
- Health CareUNHLLYJNJ6.0%9.6%
- Communication ServicesGOOGLMETANFLX3.9%12%
- Consumer DiscretionaryAMZNTSLABKNG3.3%8.7%
- UnclassifiedSBUXADPMNST3.0%–
- IndustrialsCATGEGEV1.5%5.7%
- UtilitiesCEGAEPNEE0.5%1.9%
- MaterialsLINNEMFCX0.4%1.4%
- Real EstatePLDEQIXAMT0.2%1.1%
What drives the swings
- When the S&P 500 moves 1%
- 0.9%
- This mix tends to move this much
- Up and down in a year
- 13%
- The S&P 500: 14%
- Largest fall this past year
- −7.8%
- Nov 12 to Mar 30. The S&P 500: −8.9%
Today's mix, past year
You +17.0%S&P 500 +11.7%
0%+10%+20%
−7.8%
Names that move as one
One bet in disguise
3 holdings move as one
48% of the money
The steadiest diversifier
XOM moves least with the rest
Barely follows the others. It can hold up when the rest fall together.
Biggest overlap
VOO and QQQ move almost as one
Owning both is close to owning one twice.
See every pairHide the pairs
How closely each pair moves
1 = in step
AAPL.34
JPM.48
MSFT.42.36
NVDA.62.67−.32
VOO.34.48.42.62.93−.31
QQQ.36.67.93−.32
XOM−.31−.32
COST−.32
UNH
What the funds add
Today's mix through past shocks
Each shock
YouS&P 500
ShockYouS&P 500
- 2015 China scare−12%−11%
- Late-2018 sell-off−25%−19%
- Covid crash−32%−34%
- 2020 rebound+67%+53%
- 2022 rate-hike slide−23%−25%
- 2023 bank scare−3%−3%
- 2024 yen unwind−10%−8%
- 2025 tariff shock−12%−12%
What made the money, at today's mix
This year
+16.0%
The S&P 500: +12.3%
Last 3 months
+0.9%
The S&P 500: −1.1%
What this mix is made of
- 6 months vs S&P 500
- +4.2 pts
- This mix +7.5%, the S&P 500 +3.3%
- Times earnings
- 28x
- The S&P 500: 26x
- Sales growth
- 27.2%
- The S&P 500: 24.0%
- Profit margin
- 33.7%
- The S&P 500: 32.4%
- In $200B+ companies
- 90%
- The S&P 500: 73%
- Dividend yield
- 0.98%
- The S&P 500: 1.07%